5am. 55°F. Still air and clear sky. The waning moon was late rising Thursday morning, so the stars over The Mountain had the heavens all to themselves a little longer.
A UPS Boeing 767 out of Louisville blinked at me from 36,000 feet on its way to Oklahoma City. It’s a regular route, I guess, because I often spot it at that hour.
What I didn’t expect at 5am was the crunch of tires on the road. Out of the blackness emerged my neighbor’s compact car. She eased by, unaware of my presence, on her way to who-knows-where.
She’s battling some health issues. Maybe that had something to do with the odd-hours departure.
Smudge and I stepped through our well-rehearsed start-of-the-day ritual. I’ve been adding a little rice to her kibble the last several meals, in an effort to “tighten” what had become loose. (If you know, you know.) It works.
Later, while the sky was still dark, the crescent moon rose above the treetops.
I still try to get decent images of the night sky. This is the best I could do yesterday morning.
Temperatures in the cabin stayed in the 60s ’til just after noon. Outside, the afternoon high reached the mid-80s, pleasant conditions hard-earned over a stifling summer.
I turned my attention to weekend weather and checked out the Day 3 (Saturday) forecast from the NWS Storm Prediction Center. As I’d anticipated, it’s a lot more specific than it was a few days ago.
All of Arkansas is roped into an area of “slight” risk. That means there’s a 15% probability of hail as big as golf balls and straight-line winds of 60mph to 80mph, along with a “low” risk of tornadoes (depending on whether the storms pop as discrete supercells or advance as a line).
And what about rain? We should get some, but just how much isn’t yet certain. The National Weather Service has us on the fringe of “marginal” (at least 5%) risk for “excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding.”
It’s easy for consumers of information like this to react by running to one extreme or the other. Seeing a scary yellow bullseye painted over the whole state — and hearing the word “tornadoes” — will freak some folks out.
Others will be downright dismissive of the threat, pointing to labels assigned by meteorologists. Slight. Marginal. Low. Even the numbers make the risk seem insignificant.
I operate somewhere in the middle. I know that meteorology is, in many ways, an inexact science. I see this information as a collection of educated guesses, cues for me to check my preparations. If the worst happens, I’m as ready as I can be. And if a fearsome forecast fizzles, being prepared has cost me nothing.
We’ll see which way it goes on Saturday.
I didn’t mention it yesterday, but I got a surprise phone call Wednesday afternoon from a good friend back in Ohio. Our 90-minute conversation was wide-ranging and, typical of our friendship, brutally honest.
There are people who’ve stood steadfastly with me over the last eight months, and I’m grateful for each and every one of them. They haven’t hesitated. They haven’t blinked.
And not a single one is an asshole.
But there’s also a much smaller circle that not only stands with me — they stand close. They know me. They get it. Often they rise from their own troubles to help me shoulder mine.
Such is the friend who called me on Wednesday.
All of these people have given me the gift of loyalty that I never asked for and never would. I am a most fortunate man.
Take care of yourselves, Patriots. Stay calm. Stay sharp. Stay free.
#WiseUp #LibertyOrDeath #Ungovernable